US EIA raises natural gas storage forecast, cuts winter price outlook

WASHINGTON, Nov. 10 — The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Nov. 10 forecast almost 70 billion cubic feet more natural gas in U.S. storage at the end of November than it forecast in October, citing a warm start to the month.²

EIA said in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook that mild weather in November reduced heating demand.¹ It forecast the Henry Hub spot price for natural gas to average $2.87 per million British thermal units from November through March, 16% lower than it expected last month.¹

According to the outlook, EIA finalized inputs into its model on Nov. 5, 2026, and the forecast does not specifically account for market events after that day.¹ The press release's table notes that annual Henry Hub forecasts are pending reconciliation and that all figures are subject to final review.²

EIA also raised its forecasts for U.S. retail gasoline and diesel prices.² It now expects the U.S. retail diesel price to average $5.03 per gallon in 2027, up from $4.49 per gallon in the October forecast.¹ It expects gasoline to average $3.73 per gallon, up from $3.56 per gallon.²

The agency said it now assumes global petroleum product markets will face continued supply constraints through the end of 2027.¹ It still expects retail gasoline and diesel prices to decline in 2027.²

According to the outlook, international natural gas prices have climbed to their highest levels since December 2022 while Henry Hub prices have fallen.¹ EIA said U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminals are running near full capacity.¹

The outlook forecasts U.S. liquefied natural gas exports will rise to 19 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, up 26% from 2025.¹

EIA released its previous outlook on Oct. 6.¹