EIA expects heating oil bills to rise 21% as it raises oil price forecast

WASHINGTON, Oct 6 — The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Oct 6 that homes heating mainly with heating oil will spend about 21% more this winter, while homes using natural gas and propane, about half of U.S. households, will spend less.²

In its 2026–27 Winter Fuels Outlook, the agency said heating oil prices are up more than 30% from last winter.¹ A milder winter in the Northeast offsets part of that increase, according to the agency.¹ About 3% of U.S. households heat mainly with heating oil, and most of those homes are in the Northeast.¹ EIA forecast that homes that heat mainly with electricity will spend slightly more.¹

"Relatively high natural gas inventories entering the winter season provide a cushion for heating demand, while households that rely on heating oil face higher prices because distillate markets remain tight," EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said.²

In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA said it now expects the Brent crude oil spot price to average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 higher than in last month's forecast.¹ The agency expects Brent to fall to an average of $84 per barrel in 2027.¹

The agency said attacks on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia show that physical oil flows and oil prices could stay volatile.¹ It said extreme tightness in diesel markets is also pushing crude prices up.¹

U.S. retail diesel prices averaged $6.29 per gallon in September and gasoline averaged $4.35 per gallon, according to EIA.¹ The press release said EIA expects diesel to stay above $6 per gallon in October.²

East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September.² The outlook forecasts they will stay around 20% below the 2021–2025 average through the winter.¹ The press release put that range at between 20% and 30% below average.²

EIA said it finalized the model's inputs on Oct 1, 2026.¹