October 2026 was warmest October globally, Copernicus says

October 2026 was the warmest October globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.35°C, Copernicus said in its surface air temperature report, surpassing the previous October record set in 2023.

The month was 0.90°C above the 1991-2020 average for October, compared with 0.85°C above average in 2023, according to the report.

October 2026 was 1.75°C above the estimated 1850-1900 pre-industrial average for the month. It was the third consecutive month above 1.5°C, Copernicus said.

The average sea surface temperature across the extra-polar ocean (60°S-60°N) was 20.95°C, the highest value on record for October. It was the fourth consecutive month to set a record for the respective month, according to the report.

Copernicus said the high sea surface temperatures reflected both intensifying El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific and much above-average temperatures across many other ocean regions. The average October sea surface temperature for the Niño 3.4 region, used to monitor El Niño conditions, reached an all-time high of 29.94°C.

For January to October, 2026 ranks as the second-warmest year on record, at 0.64°C above the 1991–2020 average, the report said.

A statistical model using past ERA5 data predicts 2026 will most likely be the second-warmest year on record, with about 80% probability. The model indicates 2026 is virtually certain, at more than 99% probability, to exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average, Copernicus said.

The average temperature over European land for October 2026 was 11.08°C, 1.49°C above the 1991-2020 average, making it the second-warmest October in the ERA5 dataset, according to the report.